Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 19.547002 23.592663 28.079497 33.398649 39.505215 46.268921 54.298491
2025-02-16 13.677745 18.953187 25.445294 33.904553 44.507701 57.224853 73.483737
2025-02-23 10.184135 15.788470 23.277980 33.764601 47.782856 65.571083 89.502035
2025-03-02 7.714943 13.246782 21.202282 33.053054 49.770582 71.980689 103.097931
2025-03-09 6.130366 11.556611 19.890520 32.992471 52.338347 79.039201 117.706836
2025-03-16 4.553763 9.488481 17.609183 31.098580 51.944845 81.810178 126.460940
2025-03-23 3.904627 8.821151 17.366683 32.178658 55.871637 90.770705 144.181799
2025-03-30 3.135056 7.746488 16.252977 31.679605 57.260002 96.030590 156.794419
2025-04-06 2.809389 7.457283 16.441115 33.310420 62.055216 106.560831 177.549376
2025-04-13 2.072914 6.116980 14.481416 30.982260 60.186812 106.749823 182.817305
2025-04-20 1.781710 5.692763 14.195247 31.574596 63.170543 114.587627 199.983590
2025-04-27 1.571962 5.409310 14.141443 32.570216 66.882532 123.733974 219.526186
2025-05-04 1.326988 5.005460 13.853688 33.253389 70.400667 133.251924 240.930510
2025-05-11 1.113938 4.626238 13.569597 33.944104 74.056312 143.330119 263.945065
2025-05-18 0.893632 4.137502 12.932811 33.817203 76.165482 150.895191 283.220246
2025-05-25 0.690699 3.609812 12.082910 33.105674 77.068455 156.391479 299.289711
2025-06-01 0.554522 3.248042 11.569757 33.045078 79.190262 164.079770 319.298495
2025-06-08 0.389800 2.671701 10.334346 31.148734 77.456887 164.761313 327.404942
2025-06-15 0.337821 2.551066 10.363212 32.230217 81.866209 176.763680 355.432890
2025-06-22 0.259656 2.250552 9.779683 31.730516 82.914007 182.605520 372.938370
2025-06-29 0.235194 2.218102 10.031982 33.363441 88.619882 197.399999 406.747847
2025-07-06 0.153897 1.778432 8.822891 31.032262 85.502759 195.313493 410.401485
2025-07-13 0.127790 1.666671 8.715491 31.625371 88.907562 205.893581 437.234534